Concerns about the aerospace industrial base are likely to guide major aircraft recapitalization decisions under the US Air Force's new leadership.
Since 2006, the USAF has voiced its desire to yoke the demise of Lockheed Martin F-22 production with the start of full-rate production of the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).
Indeed, Lockheed's JSF programme officials are expecting the air force
to fill the gap by more than doubling purchases of F-35As after fiscal
year 2012 from 48 to 110 aircraft per year.
Air Force chief of staff General Norton Schwartz has confirmed his
support for this policy, and also expanded it. Schwartz says the same
approach should be used for the airlifter industrial base, so that the
duration of C-17 production should be linked to a full-rate order for a
next-generation airlifter or tanker.
"It's important to have a production line that is hot," Schwartz
says. "It is my personal view that there is a legitimate argument that
there should be a hand-off between these production lines."
After the KC-X recompetition was canceled on 9 September, Schwartz
estimates it could take between eight and 48 months to sign a new
contract to buy tankers. It is unclear how long it would take after
contract signing to reach full-rate production.
General Arthur Lichte, chief of Air Mobility Command, says he
prefers to restrict KC-X competition next year to the Boeing KC-767 and
Northrop Grumman/EADS North America KC-30. If the rivals were allowed
to change platforms, the timing of contract award could be dramatically
extended.
The USAF is also awaiting the results of two major studies to
determine its need for airlifters. Congress has commissioned a study
from the Institute for Defense Analyses that is due in October. A
mobility capabilities study, assessing airlift needs through 2016, is
expected in mid-summer 2009.
In the long term, the Boeing C-17B, Airbus A400M and widened "XL"
version of the C-130 are being prepared to compete for a USAF contract
that may emerge after 2015. The immediate focus is meeting a niche
airlift requirement driven by the Army Future Combat Systems, but each
of the bidders is eyeing the larger requirement to start replacing
about 221 C-130Hs in the USAF fleet from 2020.
Source: Flight International by Stephen Trimble